This upcoming Sunday, June 30, 2024, All Elite Wrestling will host its annual AEW x NJPW: Forbidden Door pay-per-view. This year, emanating from the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, the event will not only be a crossover between AEW and New Japan Pro-Wrestling, but also talent from Mexico's CMLL promotion.
While the card has yet to be 100% fully formulated, and is subject to change on this week's Dynamite as well as potentially Ring of Honor, Rampage and Collision, most of the matches for the lineup are close to set in stone.
Let's run down the show's current card, preview what's in store, and toss out some predictions for AEW x NJPW: Forbidden Door III.
Non-Title Matches
In a rematch of sorts from last year's event, Orange Cassidy will face Zack Sabre Jr. In 2023, Cassidy was victorious in a four-way match, retaining his AEW International Championship over not only Sabre Jr., but also Katsuyori Shibata and Daniel Garcia.
This time around, no belt is on the line, and Sabre Jr. is in a much better position to defeat Cassidy to make up for it. There's a good chance Sabre Jr. wins the G1 tournament in New Japan and goes on to fight for the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship at Wrestle Kingdom 2025. Winning this match here would be one of the starts of gaining that momentum.
SUNDAY!
— NJPW Global (@njpwglobal) June 25, 2024
With unfinished business from last year's #ForbiddenDoor, Zack Sabre Jr. and Orange Cassidy go one on one. With ZSJ in TMDK colours, will Orange be left black and blue on Long Island?
TICKETS: https://t.co/yzFGuRsSwa
Preview: https://t.co/hRwSvxMerX#AEWxNJPW pic.twitter.com/ECjgTfZytk
MJF vs. Hechicero is far from the most important match on the card. Outside of showcasing a CMLL wrestler and getting Maxwell Jacob Friedman on the marquee, it doesn't serve much of a purpose. CMLL won't want their guy to look too weak, but there's almost zero chance someone as big of a deal on the roster hierarchy as MJF is going to lose so soon after returning from injury—least of all to someone outside the company who isn't even a defending champion who must keep his title or anything of that sort.
Speaking of outsiders, Shingo Takagi vs. Bryan Danielson in a first-round match for the men's Owen Hart Cup should be one of the best matches of the night. Danielson rarely misfires, and he works well with the style of wrestlers like Takagi. They're sure to beat each other to a pulp. Ultimately, it will be Danielson who moves on to advance in the Owen Hart Foundation Tournament, as he's not only the AEW wrestler of the two, but a prime focal point of this year's bracket. Danielson is arguably the favorite to win the whole thing. He won't be stopped here in his first match.
Fun fact, Bryan Danielson and Shingo Takagi (under the name SHINGO at the time) had a match in 2010 on a Dragon Gate USA show, making their Forbidden Door match their 2nd singles match and 3rd overall time in the ring together, having previously teamed together in ROH pic.twitter.com/uKgnfjCV1y
— Rain 🌧️ (@TheRainmakah) June 26, 2024
Last out of the currently scheduled matches that doesn't involve a championship is a Trios Match: Match The Learning Tree's Chris Jericho, "The Redwood" Big Bill, and "The Bad Apple" Bryan Keith vs. Samoa Joe, HOOK and Katsuyori Shibata
Jericho's FTW Championship is not on the line here. He and his team could easily lose in order to set up whoever gets the win for the opposite team to be his next challenger for that title. Considering this is HOOK's belt to regain on behalf of his father, Taz, who created the championship, it should eventually go back to him. However, Samoa Joe would make for a great option as the next FTW champion that HOOK then needs to beat.
Of course, The Learning Tree could simply win because they're still a relatively new group and to lose would take some of the shine off them. Jericho's getting mixed reactions for this new gimmick, but if Tony Khan wants to keep it garnering attention—positive or negative—having this group be victorious would stretch this out further.
Samoa Joe has called out Chris Jericho’s Learning Tree for a match at Forbidden Door #AEWCollision
— WrestlePurists (@WrestlePurists) June 23, 2024
pic.twitter.com/lRKqnGiUvS
Championship Matches
When it comes to the championship matches, much more is at stake, and we know for a fact that a few titles will definitely change hands.
One of those is the ladder match for the vacant AEW TNT Championship. Adam Copeland suffered a serious leg injury at AEW Double or Nothing when he jumped off the top of a barbed wire steel cage in his match against Malakai Black. Maybe he would have been better off not being in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for this match and touring the casinos of Las Vegas, or checking out something like Slotozilla instead if he was feeling like gambling with his career and life.
As it stands, the competitors fighting for the relinquished title are Konosuke Takeshita, Mark Briscoe, Jack Perry, Dante Martin, Lio Rush and someone unknown. Until that last participant is sorted out, Jack Perry remains the favorite to win. He has the most overall momentum and the backing of being in The Elite. The Young Bucks and Kazuchika Okada are holding championships, so it only makes sense for Perry to be standing beside them holding a belt, too.
If not Perry, the next likely option would be Takeshita. He's been impressive long enough that it would make sense for AEW to put a title around his waist. Anyone else would be surprising, as Lio Rush and Dante Martin are likely there to do aerial maneuvers, and it'd be strange for Mark Briscoe to hold this title and the ROH World Championship at the same time.
A very easy call to predict is the Winner Takes All Match with Mercedes Moné vs. Stephanie Vaquer.
Here, Moné will put up her AEW TBS Championship while Vaquer will have her NJPW STRONG Women's Championship on the line. The winner of the match will walk out holding both titles.
It is obvious Moné will be the victor. Not only would it be crazy for her to drop the TBS Championship so quickly after winning it at the last event, but the NJPW STRONG Women's Championship was essentially created for her in the first place. Had she not gotten injured in her tournament match against Willow Nightingale at Resurgence 2023, she would have won that title and been its inaugural champion.
As far as betting odds are concerned, Moné has a massive lead with -2000 (1/20) over Vaquer's +700 (7/1)
Don't expect the other women's title match to have a change, though. "Timeless" Toni Storm vs. Mina Shirakawa for the AEW Women's World Championship is going to be another case of the same old story with Storm retaining. This isn't so much about Mina Shirakawa posing a threat to the title, but more about whether she'll get in the way of Storm's relationship with Mariah May. Either May chooses to side with Storm and stays where she's at, or this could be the reason May splits away from Storm. In either scenario, Storm is going to remain champion.
Storm is the heavy favorite for betting odds, putting her at -1500 (1/15) against Shirakawa's +600 (6/1)
It's safe to say Swerve Strickland vs. Will Ospreay for the AEW World Championship isn't going to end in a title change, either. Strickland is still far too new as champion, and Ospreay is holding the AEW International Championship. It wouldn't be wise for Tony Khan to take all the buzz around Strickland away just to give Ospreay a second belt, when he has one that he can not only defend (and arguably should have been putting up for grabs at this event), but to revolve around and elevate.
They'll have a fantastic match even without much of a storyline, but this will be a case where Strickland retains, they have a show of respect, and someone else steps up to challenge both of them for future title shots. Keep an eye out for "Hangman" Adam Page to fight Strickland, possibly as the Wild Card entrant in the Owen Hart Cup tournament.
Betting odds are currently sitting at Strickland with -800 (1/8) and Ospreay at +425 (17/4)
Last, but not least, Jon Moxley will defend the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship against Tetsuya Naito. This actually stands a very high chance of changing hands—much different from last year's match with Sanada defeating Jack Perry, who was still Jungle Boy at the time.
Moxley defeated Naito to win the IWGP title at NJPW Windy City Riot in April, after Naito had won the belt at Wrestle Kingdom 18. It is highly unlikely Moxley will remain champion heading into Wrestle Kingdom 19, especially as he isn't involved in the G1 Climax tournament, which the champion is traditionally part of. Naito is in the tournament, though, and to see him win it back and start building toward the main event of 2025's Wrestle Kingdom makes the most sense.
What do you think is going to happen at AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door 2024? Place your predictions in the comments.
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