At WWE's next premium live event, Night of Champions (set to take place May 27, 2023 at the Jeddah Superdome in Saudi Arabia), a new world heavyweight champion will be crowned.
Seth Rollins won the mini-tournament on this week's episode of Monday Night Raw, beating Shinsuke Nakamura and Damian Priest in a Triple Threat match at first and going on to defeat Finn Balor (who won his Triple Threat match over The Miz and Cody Rhodes) to earn a spot in the finals.
This upcoming episode of Friday Night SmackDown will host the blue brand's side of the bracket to determine who Rollins will face at the pay-per-view at the end of the month.
But before even settling on the semi-finals, let alone who is in the finals, you should already place your bets that Seth "Freakin" Rollins will be the one holding the gold by the end of the night, and here are five reasons why he is a sure-fire bet come results night.
1) Eliminate All the SmackDown Competitors By Default
Fundamentally, the easiest way to rule him the online betting favorite is because he's the only person left who is on the Raw roster.
The 2023 WWE Draft just took place, and already, WWE has defied its mission statement to have a hard brand split that would separate the two rosters by having people show up on the brand they weren't drafted to.
While we await further clarification of what WWE's answer will be to solving the Bianca Belair and Rhea Ripley Raw and SmackDown Women's Championship mix-up, one thing we have to assume they'll stick to—even though they've already gone against their "draft will take effect right after Backlash" statement—is that this World Heavyweight Championship will be a Raw-exclusive belt.
Technically speaking, Triple H did say that if a SmackDown Superstar were to win it, that person would then become a Raw-branded star and it would potentially facilitate a trade. That's an out to justify why SmackDown is even involved in this tournament to begin with.
The real truth of the matter is that SmackDown is only included so WWE can try to bump up the ratings by putting an important tournament on this upcoming show. There's no actual jeopardy that any of those 6 Superstars will be winning this belt.
2) A Further Look at Each SmackDown Option and Why They Specifically Won't Win
The six Superstars on SmackDown vying for a spot in the finals are AJ Styles, Austin Theory, Bobby Lashley, Edge, Rey Mysterio and Sheamus.
When it comes to Styles, he's part of The O.C. faction. If he were to win and be traded to Raw, that would mean Luke Gallows, Karl Anderson and Michin would have to move, too, or the group would have to split. That either leaves SmackDown with almost no Superstars on the brand, or Raw would have to trade 4 or more over in return, which would be enough trades that it would basically undo an entire round of the draft we just saw. Plus, The O.C. against The Bloodline on SmackDown is an obvious future feud down the line.
Theory is already holding the United States Championship. WWE rarely has double-champions and it is unreasonable to think Theory will be trusted to take on this heavy burden of being a world title-holder at this moment, while also having to vacate his midcard title so SmackDown keeps that belt to offset Gunther's Intercontinental Championship on Raw.
Lashley would stand the best chance to potentially upset Rollins, but he is also an obvious choice to feud with Reigns in the coming months. With Cedric Alexander and Shelton Benjamin listed as free agents, the potential reunion of The Hurt Business to feud with The Bloodline is something to look out for.
Edge is a part-timer who is rumored to have a clause in his contract that specifically states he won't win any championships. The only way he would make sense to win this belt is if WWE plans to have him lose it almost immediately, which would in many ways defeat the purpose of winning it at all.
Mysterio is also winding down his career, could feud with Reigns in the future alongside the LWO to back him up against The Bloodline, and he runs into the same trade problem as The O.C. as he'd have to have Zelina Vega, Santos Escobar, Cruz Del Toro and Joaquin Wilde move to Raw with him.
Lastly, there's Sheamus, who not only has again the same problem with his Brawling Brutes partners Butch and Ridge Holland with the trade, but he simply doesn't have the momentum on his side to put the world title on his shoulders.
3) The "Roman Reigns Can't Beat Seth Rollins" Story
WWE continues to remind fans that Roman Reigns has beaten everyone, but he continually has trouble when it comes to Seth Rollins.
This is a story that has persisted for years, dating back to Rollins turning heel and breaking off from The Shield in the first place by hitting Roman in the back with a steel chair (which was referenced in the Sami Zayn split from The Bloodline).
Rollins cashed in his Money in the Bank briefcase at WrestleMania 31 to pin Reigns (not Brock Lesnar) to win the WWE World Heavyweight Championship. He's beaten Reigns prior and after that, such as beating Roman at Money in the Bank 2016 to win the title.
Roman can only beat Rollins when nothing is on the line. If it is a title match on a pay-per-view, like the last time they clashed at Royal Rumble 2022, Rollins won that match by disqualification.
WWE wants you to see Rollins and Reigns as two halves of the same coin, and the narrative is expressed even outside the storylines. Rollins has flat out said in an interview that he is basically considered to be the Edge to Roman's John Cena, or the Macho Man Randy Savage compared to Reigns being Hulk Hogan.
In order to further that narrative, Rollins holding the other world championship from Night of Champions onward that Reigns doesn't possess keeps them as parallels and can even set up a potential Champion vs. Champion match at Survivor Series if WWE drops the WarGames gimmick and goes back to the brand split competition.
Assuming Rollins drops that title by the time January 2024 comes around, having held that belt in the meantime could position him as a top backup contender to win the Royal Rumble and fight Reigns at WrestleMania 40 in Philadelphia if WWE isn't able to lock down The Rock as The Tribal Chief's opponent, or doesn't just go for a rematch with Cody Rhodes.
4) An Established, Reliable, Workhorse Babyface Champion to Offset the Opposite Established, Part-Time Heel
Generally speaking, WWE is going to want to have a babyface hold this title just to be different from Roman Reigns in general. This belt was basically created because WWE doesn't plan to have Reigns lose his belt any time soon and realized the struggles of booking two shows without a world title feud for months on end that fans know will not go anywhere.
Having another heel champion wouldn't give fans anything different from what we've seen the past several years, which rules out Theory to begin with.
WWE wants this title to be more of a workhorse belt that is defended more often. You need a reliable Superstar who appears on virtually every show and doesn't go down with injuries too often. That rules out Edge and Rey Mysterio as well as even AJ Styles, who spent the past few months on the shelf.
Star power is important in this sport, and while Lashley and Sheamus are not lacking on that front, they don't get the same crowd reaction as Rollins. He's also held more titles than those two, so if WWE is worried about this championship not having immediate prestige, Rollins is the best option to ensure fans know it is a true world title.
5) The Wins Over Omos and Logan Paul > / < The Losses to Cody Rhodes
Another tell for who could win a title like this is to look at the recent wins and losses someone's had to see if WWE has been setting them up for failure or success.
Rollins put over Cody Rhodes three times last year. That surely won him some major points with the company as far as how he's willing to do business, even losing to someone who he supposedly doesn't get along with.
To counteract that, and as a show of good faith as a reward, Rollins was given a high-profile match at WrestleMania 39 against Logan Paul, which he won.
That feud ended and he had nothing to do for a few weeks, but WWE randomly gave him a match with Omos at Backlash. There was no story to it whatsoever, so the only real purpose one can assume that WWE had in mind when booking this (outside of potentially just thinking Rollins is a big name, Omos is a big guy, and that might sell some tickets to the show) is that Rollins getting a win over The Nigerian Giant would catapult him back into the spotlight at the top of the card. It's an impressive victory to overcome someone with that size difference.
This all speaks to Rollins building momentum toward being the trusted top guy on Monday Night Raw, and the only way to signify that is to put the big gold belt around his waist, which was already spoiled from the start by having Rollins be the first person to address the new belt head-on after Triple H announced it.
Rollins not only is already guaranteed to fight in the finals, which gives him a leg up on the betting odds, but by being a Raw Superstar with a history of beating Roman Reigns who can appear on every episode going forward, is a popular babyface and an established name that will immediately give credibility to the championship, all the stars are aligned for him to be the clear favorite to win.
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